2021-22 ASSESSMENT:
WHAT WENT WRONG
It was no surprise that the Rockets had a losing season. Their over/under was 26.5 at the beginning of the year and that was before they exiled their best veteran player and only real point guard, John Wall, for the entire season. Their future lies in the development of the 7 players age 21 or under on the roster, 5 of whom (Kevin Porter Jr., KJ Martin, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Josh Christopher) garnered significant minutes while the other 2 (Usman Garuba and Dashien Nix) showed flashes in more limited action. These 7 players played just over 45% of the team’s minutes! The team endured long losing streaks of 15, 8, 12, and 7 games at various points. As with any rebuild, the major concern with all of the losing is whether the players get used to it and accept it vs. having it drive them to where they earn hard-fought victories by learning how to protect leads and close games.
Wall was paid to stay home last year and unfortunately is almost certain to exercise his $47.4m player option for next season, given that he’s only played 113 games over the past 5 seasons and sat out 2 of the past 3 entirely. However, he has averaged 20p/3r/8a when he has played and will be on an expiring deal, so there may be a greater market for him than last year. Clearly he’s not in the team’s plans on the court.
WHAT WENT RIGHT
The team’s other four rookies (Christopher, Garuba, Nix, and Sengun) all showed flashes of potential and should have more opportunities next year to carve out more meaningful minutes as consistent members of the rotation. Sengun in particular was surprisingly effective at times; as an old school big man with passing skills and an unorthodox style of play he often caught defenses off guard.
The team has young veterans in Porter Jr. and Christian Wood; should they be part of the long term plan? Neither may be a good fit for a winning culture. Porter Jr. has a checkered history of personality conflicts, having been exiled from a Cleveland team that desperately needed his skilled set after being exiled from his college team at USC. In the NBA, his teams are 35-102 when he plays. Wood’s teams are 79-147 in 7 seasons when he plays; neither Porter Jr. nor Wood has ever played in the postseason. These two do have value, however, due to their enticing potential. The team has already reached an agreement with the Mavericks on a trade for Wood, acquiring the 26th pick in the draft in addition to veterans Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss, and Boban Marjanovic. It may make sense to also move Porter for other pieces who will better complement the talents of players like Green and Sengun and who will help build that winning culture and mindset.
PAYROLL
UNDER CONTRACT:
| NAME | 2022-23 SALARY | FUTURE OBLIGATION? |
| Gordon, Eric | $19.6m | TO 2023-24 ($20.9m) |
| Wood, Christian | $14.3m | Expiring {will be traded to Rockets after the draft} |
| Green, Jalen | $9.4m | TO 2023-24 ($9.9m), TO 2024-25 ($12.5m), QO 2025-26 ($16.3m) |
| Nwaba, David | $5.0m | TO 2023-24 ($5.4m) |
| Sengun, Alperen | $3.4m | TO 2023-24 ($3.5m), TO 2024-25 ($5.4m), QO 2025-26 ($7.6m) |
| Porter Jr., Kevin | $3.2m | PO 2023-24 ($4.8m) |
| Garuba, Usman | $2.5m | TO 2023-24 ($2.6m), TO 2024-25 ($4.4m), QO 2025-26 ($6.4m) |
| Christopher, Josh | $2.4m | TO 2023-24 ($2.5m), TO 2024-25 ($4.3m), QO 2025-26 ($6.4m) |
| Martin Jr., Kenyon | $1.8m | 2023-24 ($1.9m) |
| Nix, Dashien | $1.6m | TO 2023-24 ($1.8m), TO 2024-25 ($2.0m) |
CONTRACT PENDING:
| NAME | 2022-23 SALARY | TYPE |
| Wall, John | $47.4m | Player Option |
| Matthews, Garrison | $2.0m | Team Option |
| Tate, Jae’Sean | $1.8m | Team Option |
RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS:
| NAME | AGE | HT | WT | STATS w/TEAM |
| Fernando, Bruno | 24 | 6’9” | 245 | 10g 9.4mpg 6.9ppg 4.0rpg 0.3apg 72.5% / 0.0% / 57.9% |
| Lamb, Anthony | 25 | 6’6” | 227 | N/A |
| Queen, Trevelin | 25 | 6’6” | 290 | 10g 7.4mpg 4.3ppg 1.6rpg 0.4apg 66.7% / 37.5% / 100.0% |
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS:
| NAME | AGE | HT | WT | STATS w/TEAM |
| Schroder, Dennis | 29 | 6’3” | 172 | 15g 26.9mpg 10.9ppg 3.3rpg 5.9apg 43.9% / 32.8% / 87.2% |
DEAD CAP:
| NAME | AMOUNT |
| Augustin, DJ | $333k |
| Williams, Troy | $123k |
EXCEPTIONS:
| TYPE | AMOUNT | EXPIRES | NOTES |
| Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception | $10.3m | ||
| Bi-Annual Exception | $4.0m | ||
| Trade Exception | $0.6m | 02/10/23 | from 02/10/22 trade w/BOS |
DRAFT ASSETS
2022 DRAFT:
PICKS
| ROUND | PICK | FROM |
| 1 | 3 | Own Pick |
| 1 | 17 | BRK (01/16/21, via 4-team trade, with Dante Exum, Rodions Kurucs, Victor Oladipo, 2022 R1, 2024 R1, 2026 R1, option to swap 1st round picks with Nets in 2023, 2025, and 2027 for James Harden, 2023 R2) |
RELINQUISHED
| ROUND | PICK | NOTES |
| 1 | 24 | acquired from CLE (01/16/21), traded to MIL (03/19/21) |
| 2 | 31 | own pick; traded to CLE (02/07/19, via 3-team trade, with Marquese Chriss, Brandon Knight, 2019 R1 {#26-Dylan Windler}, 2020 R2 {#52-Kenyon Martin Jr.} for Wade Baldwin IV, Iman Shumpert, Nik Stauskas, 2021 R2 {#54-Sandro Mamukelashvili}) |
FUTURE DRAFT ASSETS:
OWN PICKS
| YEAR | ROUND | NOTES |
| 2023 | 1 | HOU has rights to swap with BRK (01/16/21) |
| 2023 | 2 | To BOS if #31 or #32, otherwise to MEM if lower than pick acquired from DAL or MIA (11/20/20) |
| 2024 | 1 | To OKC if >#4 (07/16/19) |
| 2024 | 2 | |
| 2025 | 1 | OKC has rights to swap if >#10; HOU has rights to swap with BRK (07/16/19) |
| 2025 | 2 | |
| 2026 | 1 | To OKC if >#4 (07/16/19) |
| 2026 | 2 | |
| 2027 | 1 | HOU has rights to swap with BRK (01/16/21) |
| 2027 | 2 | Traded to DET (11/24/2020) |
| 2028 | 1 | |
| 2028 | 2 | |
| 2029 | 1 | |
| 2029 | 2 |
OTHER PICKS ACQUIRED
| YEAR | ROUND | NOTES |
| 2023 | 1 | from MIL (03/19/21) |
| 2023 | 2 | lower of DAL or MIA picks; to MEM if >#32 but lower than HOU own pick (02/06/20) |
| 2024 | 1 | from BRK (01/16/21) |
| 2024 | 2 | from BRK (10/06/21) |
| 2026 | 1 | from BRK (01/16/21) |
2022-23 GAME PLAN:
The Rockets won’t have many open roster spots after adding 2 first round picks to the 10 players under contract, plus Jae’Sean Tate (on who they’ll almost certainly exercise their team option) and Wall. It’s doubtful that Dennis Schroder will be back, given the team’s youth movement. Eric Gordon, who has a team option for 2023-24 that will likely be declined, is essentially on an expiring contract. The team needs to move Wall and Gordon for assets, which would hopefully include a competent veteran point guard, and then make a decision on Porter Jr.. Delon Wright could be a target in free agency, as it’s unlikely he’ll resign with the Hawks; perhaps a sign-and-trade could be worked out. I’d move on from Matthews as well, to create additional flexibility.
There’s no real possibility of a playoff berth next year; the key to any hope of an eventual return to prominence is hitting on this top 5 pick in the draft. The task of shaping the roster gains some clarity when there are two potential All-Stars under age 22 to build around. The team likely will have another top 10 pick in 2023 plus an extra 1st from the Bucks to complete the rebuilding of the roster with young talent and at that point could be poised to make a real leap.
The one major wildcard is Porter Jr., who at times was unstoppable and looked like a more athletic version of James Harden. If he were to mature as a player and a person and become more consistent and reliable, especially on defense, the Rockets could have a tall, athletic, versatile backcourt that would be a nightmare for most teams to deal with. 2022-23 will be pivotal in deciding what his NBA future will be.
ASSESSMENT OF ASSETS:
| KEY BUILDING BLOCKS | Green, Sengun, Christopher, #3 Pick |
| KEY ROLE PLAYERS | Martin Jr., Tate |
| DEVELOPMENTAL RESERVES | Garuba, Nix, Fernando, #17 Pick |
| EXPENDABLE VETERAN RESERVES | Nwaba |
| EVALUATE | Porter Jr. |
| TRADE | Wood (already traded), Gordon, Wall |
| WALK AWAY | Matthews, Lamb, Queen, Schroder |
| OPEN ROSTER SPOTS TO FILL FROM TRADES OR FA | 5 |